Fundamental Analysis of the Forex Market

It is broadly accepted that there are two ways to analyze the Forex market. These are described as “fundamental” and “technical” analysis. Which of these methods works at which time? To help understand how and why, this article will look at fundamental analysis. This is a style of analysis that looks at political and economic conditions which affect exchange rates. Most commonly, these factors include employment rates and economic policies of a governing party. It therefore stands to reason that a general election in a country will have some bearing on the Forex rate for that country’s currency.

Fundamental analysis, as the name suggests, gives a broad overview of the way currencies move, and enables an understanding of where a certain currency is going. The role of fundamental analysis is to strengthen your strategy by giving it an underpinning of sound, concrete factors which have been proven, time and again, to govern how a currency will perform.

To understand the present behavior and confidently predict the future behavior of a currency, it is worth knowing things like interest rates (considered to be an indicator of continuing strength in a currency) and economic factors such as GDP and foreign investment. If a company invests in factories, offices and labor in a foreign country, it brings wealth and potential to that country, and is likely to give its currency a boost. Knowing that a country has foreign investment in the pipeline can enable confident prediction of its currency strengthening and remaining strong.

Don’t get carried away – consistency is the key!

When trading on any stock market it is easy to look at early positive results and think yourself bullet-proof. In fact, the world’s impression of stock traders in many cases tends to picture them as extremely sure of themselves and convinced that they alone hold the secrets that create wealth. This is due in no small part to the fact that, not all that long ago, that was exactly how the typical market trader behaved. It would be easy to sneer at people for behaving in that way, but the stakes involved in the world’s big markets create that kind of attitude. If your every decision can mean several figures of profit or loss, you need to at least appear confident.

There is a fine line between self-assurance and over-confidence. There is an equally small space between the relatively self-assured confidence of a trader who has just had a moderate success and the complete blind panic of someone who has just seen their positions tumble. As far as possible, you have to remain constant in your emotions when trades are live. Most traders will set stop-loss and take-profit positions on their trades, which enable them to get out while there is still time to protect some money, or to cash out before a rising stock hits difficulties. These are cautionary steps, and can be very worthwhile.

Never assume that you alone hold all the secrets. It only takes one thread to be pulled for the whole thing to come apart, and make you look very stupid. It is better to be cautious and have a house, than be impulsive and homeless.

The reliability of trending data

When making an investment in the Forex market – or indeed cashing out of one – it is common to use the trending patterns of the currency that you are trading. This is data that has been collected over a period of time – in many cases over the course of years, even decades. Knowing how to read the data effectively can make you a lot of money, or save you from making a catastrophic loss. The way that you go about investing can make a big difference, and it is advised that you do not ignore the lessons of history. However, can it be said that the historic data is foolproof?

Well, the only true answer to that question is “no”. Very few things in this world are 100% certain, and anything that is so certain is not going to be a sound basis for investment because it will never move in terms of value. As far as is possible, the most popular methods of data analysis within the Forex market can be very reliable and aid a profit strategy, but you must accept that they carry a certain risk. That risk is reduced the longer a period of data collection continues. However it is important to be aware that the lower the risk, the lower the potential reward becomes.

It is fair to say that any sound strategy needs to have a basis in data. The more data you have, the more comprehensive your strategy. You need to be aware at the point of investment however that there is a chance your strategy will fail, no matter how much data went into creating it. This does not mean the data was bad, just that on this occasion the market won.

Forex trading – Do it your way!

There have been some extremely successful traders in the history of the various markets, people who have made so much money in fact that they have been able to retire before the age of thirty in some cases. Whether the idea of being retired before you are even half way to the legally-mandated retirement age thrills or terrifies you, it has to be said that there is a real upside to having the opportunity. If we could all do what those super traders have done, we would surely do it, giving us more time to spend with loved ones. It probably comes as no surprise that such a way of operating is impossible.

As impressive as the idea of making billions and quitting before the market has the chance to take it back may be, we cannot just ape the actions of past successful traders and expect that to work for us. The market is constantly changing, and things that were true yesterday, a month ago or before we were even born are not necessarily so now. You need to find your own way, and this is as true of market trading as it is for anything else. As much as any other reason, this is true because sometimes you need to react instinctively. If you have been following someone else’s strategy, then you’ll be sunk because you do not have their instincts. Play it your way – learned through years of effort if needs be – and you will have a much greater chance of making a fortune.

Don’t assume that you know everything

If there is one piece of advice that should be issued to every potential Forex trader before they go anywhere near the trading floor (virtual or otherwise) it is this: “You may well arrive at the conclusion that you are always right. Get that idea out of your head now before it is proved to be dead wrong.”

The fact of the matter is that even the most experienced traders, and the most successful of those, have made mistakes in the past. In fact, the ones who have continued to trade for years and made a lot of money will very often be the ones who didn’t get overconfident. There is only one thing that can come from absolute confidence, and that is a rude awakening. Allow yourself to consider the phrase “the only thing that I truly know is that I know nothing”. Although it may not be quite true, it at least allows you to keep reasonable expectations.

The simple truth is that a bit of confidence is always worthwhile – it pushes you to make decisions that can be risky but are manageable. Too much confidence however is always bad. It does not allow you to keep an open mind. Without an open mind you will not be able to play the market successfully, as it will often be too late to react and make quick profits. The race, as corny as it sounds, is only against yourself, so take the time to learn its course and you will benefit.

Analyzing the market to your advantage

It has been said by many experienced traders that Forex is a more volatile market than any of the available options. The theory goes that it is difficult enough to judge a single company’s value at a given time and in the future, just imagine how hard it is to do the same thing with a whole country. This philosophy takes the point of view that analyzing the Forex market relies on careful reading over a period of time. Some knowledge of world affairs is also advantageous, as it allows you to be aware in advance of the timing of important announcements which can cause market volatility.

Others will treat the Forex market exactly like they would treat any other stock market, and take a more technical approach to analyzing their next step. This is not as simple a process in Forex as it is in the stock market, as the Forex is a 24-hour market, and the data-gathering systems require some modification to work effectively on Forex. Nonetheless, where these methods of technical analysis have been correctly applied, they have proved to be an effective way of making a profit on the Forex market just as their original forms proved on other markets.

While the first method is more of a global, evidence-based approach and the second tends towards techniques and patterns, both have been proven to be successful if correctly applied. It is highly advisable, though, to recognise which one to apply at a given time, as confusion can easily arise around what exactly the data tells you. Pick the method that you require and use the other to supplement it. That is the only way you can confidently operate in the long term.

Drawbacks for Forex beginners

Starting fresh in anything is going to have its problems, due to the lack of experience one has to draw on. As much of a natural talent as you may have for something, you will from time to time be faced with problems that you feel you are unable to deal with. One has only to look at the world of sport to see how often brilliantly talented youths are beaten by less talented experienced professionals, who know how to use a situation to their advantage on account of having faced that situation, analysed it and developed a way to deal with it. This is mirrored in life, and in situations such as the Forex market.

One thing that separates novices from experienced traders is how they react to occasionally confusing market data. When confronted with results that one does not expect, it is easy to take an inaccurate or imperfect interpretation of that data and act based on that. When you face a situation for the first time, you are in a position where you have to rely on your own impression, with nothing concrete to base it on beyond what you hear from others. It would be naïve to expect other people to always steer you the right way in an environment that rewards you more if fewer people get it right.

For this reason it is always best to have a “dry run” at Forex or any other market – whether by a “Fantasy Forex” game or with a small initial stake. This way you learn from your mistakes without having to pay too much for them.

How does technical analysis work?

Technical analysis of currency movements is now, more than ever, part of the Forex market. As time has passed, different ways of collecting and displaying data have arisen. These differing ways can be taken in isolation to either create or back up a strategy, or can be combined in order to read how the market has arrived at its present point, and how it is likely to move forward. This enables more confident predictions and sounder investments. As time goes on, more data is collected and trends are reinforced. The awareness of a trend allows a more realistic understanding of the market. For someone just starting as a Forex trader, this kind of data is all-important.

One method of technical analysis is looking at diagrams and graphs. Taken over a period of time, this allows us to define and explain a pattern. One of the most popular styles of graph is the “Candlestick pattern”, which tells at a glance for any given day where the price was at the start of a period, at the end of the same period, and its highs and lows in the intervening time. Thus you can see at a glance if a currency is genuinely rising fast or slow, or falling at the same rate. The use of Fibonacci figures is another popular analytical tool. It looks at certain points in the rise or fall of a market and – with incredible regularity – predicts when it will stabilise or “retrace” (this means reversing its trend).